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Futures Thinking in Asia and the Pacific: Why Foresight Matters for Policy Makers
Author: Asian Development Bank
Year: April 1, 2020
Format: PDF
File size: PDF 4.2 MB
Language: English



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Futures Thinking in Asia and the Pacific: Why Foresight Matters for Policy Makers As we navigate the complex and rapidly changing world of the 21st century, it has become increasingly clear that the ability to anticipate and prepare for the future is crucial for policy makers in Asia and the Pacific. This is where futures thinking and foresight come into play - a powerful planning approach that can help countries meet economic, political, social, and environmental challenges, including those posed by climate change. In their new book, "Futures Thinking in Asia and the Pacific: Why Foresight Matters for Policy Makers the authors explore the importance of studying and understanding the process of technological evolution, and the need and possibility of developing a personal paradigm for perceiving the technological process of developing modern knowledge as the basis for human survival and the unification of warring states. The book begins by introducing the concept of futures terminology and specific tools such as emerging issues analysis, scenario planning, and backcasting. These tools are then applied in Armenia, Cambodia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, the People's Republic of China, and Timor-Leste, showcasing how they can be used to identify potential entry points for transformational change in the region. The authors emphasize the importance of developing a personal paradigm for perceiving the technological process of developing modern knowledge, as this will provide the foundation for human survival and the unification of warring states. One of the key takeaways from the book is the need to study and understand the process of technology evolution.
Futures Thinking in Asia and the Pacific: Why Foresight Matters for Policy Developers По мере того, как мы ориентируемся в сложном и быстро меняющемся мире XXI века, становится все более очевидным, что способность предвидеть и готовиться к будущему имеет решающее значение для политиков в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе. Именно здесь в игру вступают фьючерсное мышление и предвидение - мощный подход к планированию, который может помочь странам справиться с экономическими, политическими, социальными и экологическими проблемами, в том числе вызванными изменением климата. В своей новой книге "Futures Thinking in Asia and the Pacific: Почему форсайт имеет значение для политиков" авторы исследуют важность изучения и понимания процесса технологической эволюции, а также необходимость и возможность выработки личностной парадигмы восприятия технологического процесса развития современных знаний как основы выживания человека и объединения враждующих государств. Книга начинается с введения концепции терминологии фьючерсов и конкретных инструментов, таких как анализ возникающих проблем, планирование сценариев и обратный расчет. Эти инструменты затем применяются в Армении, Камбодже, Казахстане, Монголии, Китайской Народной Республике и Тиморе-Лешти, демонстрируя, как их можно использовать для определения потенциальных точек входа для трансформационных изменений в регионе. Авторы подчеркивают важность выработки личностной парадигмы восприятия технологического процесса развития современных знаний, так как это даст основу для выживания человека и объединения враждующих государств. Одним из ключевых выводов из книги является необходимость изучения и понимания процесса эволюции технологий.
Future Thinking in Asia and the Pacific : Why Foresight Matters for Policy Developers À mesure que nous nous concentrons sur le monde complexe et en mutation rapide du XXIe siècle, il devient de plus en plus évident que la capacité d'anticiper et de préparer l'avenir est cruciale pour les décideurs politiques de la région Asie-Pacifique. C'est là que la pensée et la prévision à terme entrent en jeu, une approche de planification puissante qui peut aider les pays à faire face aux problèmes économiques, politiques, sociaux et environnementaux, y compris ceux causés par le changement climatique. Dans son nouveau livre « Futures Thinking in Asia and the Pacific : Pourquoi Forsythe est important pour les politiciens », les auteurs explorent l'importance d'étudier et de comprendre le processus d'évolution technologique, ainsi que la nécessité et la possibilité d'élaborer un paradigme personnel pour percevoir le processus technologique du développement des connaissances modernes comme base de la survie humaine et de l'unification des États belligérants. livre commence par l'introduction du concept de terminologie du futur et d'outils spécifiques tels que l'analyse des problèmes émergents, la planification des scénarios et le calcul inverse. Ces instruments sont ensuite appliqués en Arménie, au Cambodge, au Kazakhstan, en Mongolie, en République populaire de Chine et au Timor-ste, montrant comment ils peuvent être utilisés pour identifier les points d'entrée potentiels pour des changements transformationnels dans la région. s auteurs soulignent l'importance d'élaborer un paradigme personnel pour la perception du processus technologique de développement des connaissances modernes, car cela fournira une base pour la survie humaine et l'unification des États belligérants. L'une des principales conclusions du livre est la nécessité d'étudier et de comprendre le processus d'évolution des technologies.
Futures Thinking in Asia and the Pacific: Why Foresight Matters for Policy Developers A medida que nos enfocamos en el complejo y rápidamente cambiante mundo del siglo XXI, es cada vez más evidente que la capacidad de anticiparnos y prepararnos para el futuro tiene una decisiva importancia para los encargados de formular políticas en la región de Asia y el Pacífico. Es aquí donde entran en juego el pensamiento y la previsión de futuros, un poderoso enfoque de planificación que puede ayudar a los países a enfrentar los desafíos económicos, políticos, sociales y ambientales, incluidos los causados por el cambio climático. En su nuevo libro Futures Thinking in Asia and the Pacific: Why Forsyth es importante para los políticos, los autores exploran la importancia de estudiar y entender el proceso de evolución tecnológica, así como la necesidad y la posibilidad de generar un paradigma personal para percibir el proceso tecnológico del desarrollo del conocimiento moderno como base para la supervivencia humana y la unificación de los Estados en guerra. libro comienza introduciendo el concepto de terminología de futuros y herramientas específicas como el análisis de problemas emergentes, la planificación de escenarios y el cálculo inverso. Estos instrumentos se aplican luego en Armenia, Camboya, Kazajstán, Mongolia, la República Popular China y Timor-ste, demostrando cómo se pueden utilizar para identificar posibles puntos de entrada para cambios transformadores en la región. autores subrayan la importancia de desarrollar un paradigma personal para percibir el proceso tecnológico del desarrollo del conocimiento moderno, ya que esto proporcionará la base para la supervivencia humana y la unificación de los Estados en guerra. Una de las conclusiones clave del libro es la necesidad de estudiar y entender el proceso de evolución de la tecnología.
Futures Thinking in Asia and the Pacific: Why Foresight Matters for Policy Developers Während wir uns in der komplexen und sich schnell verändernden Welt des 21. Jahrhunderts bewegen, wird immer deutlicher, dass die Fähigkeit, die Zukunft vorherzusehen und sich darauf vorzubereiten, für politische Entscheidungsträger im asiatisch-pazifischen Raum von entscheidender Bedeutung ist. Hier kommen Future Thinking und Foresight ins Spiel - ein leistungsfähiger Planungsansatz, der Ländern helfen kann, wirtschaftliche, politische, soziale und ökologische Herausforderungen zu bewältigen, auch solche, die durch den Klimawandel verursacht werden. In ihrem neuen Buch „Futures Thinking in Asia and the Pacific: Why Foresight Matters for Politicians“ untersuchen die Autoren die Bedeutung des Studiums und des Verständnisses des technologischen Evolutionsprozesses sowie die Notwendigkeit und die Möglichkeit, ein persönliches Paradigma für die Wahrnehmung des technologischen Prozesses der Entwicklung des modernen Wissens als Grundlage für das menschliche Überleben und die Vereinigung der verfeindeten Staaten zu entwickeln. Das Buch beginnt mit einer Einführung in das Konzept der Terminologie von Futures und spezifischen Instrumenten wie der Analyse aufkommender Probleme, der Szenarioplanung und der Rückrechnung. Diese Instrumente werden dann in Armenien, Kambodscha, Kasachstan, der Mongolei, der Volksrepublik China und Timor-ste eingesetzt und zeigen, wie sie genutzt werden können, um potenzielle Einstiegspunkte für transformative Veränderungen in der Region zu identifizieren. Die Autoren betonen die Bedeutung der Entwicklung eines persönlichen Paradigmas für die Wahrnehmung des technologischen Prozesses der Entwicklung des modernen Wissens, da dies die Grundlage für das menschliche Überleben und die Vereinigung der verfeindeten Staaten bildet. Eine der wichtigsten Erkenntnisse aus dem Buch ist die Notwendigkeit, den Prozess der Technologieentwicklung zu untersuchen und zu verstehen.
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Futures Thinking in Asia and the Pacific: Why Foresight Matters for Policy Developers (Asya ve Pasifik'te Gelecek Üzerine Düşünme: Politika Geliştiricileri İçin Öngörü Neden Önemlidir?) 21. yüzyılın karmaşık ve hızla değişen dünyasında gezinirken, geleceği öngörme ve geleceğe hazırlanma yeteneğinin Asya-Pasifik bölgesindeki politika yapıcılar için kritik olduğu giderek daha açık hale geliyor. Bu, gelecekteki düşüncenin ve öngörünün devreye girdiği yerdir - ülkelerin iklim değişikliğinden kaynaklananlar da dahil olmak üzere ekonomik, politik, sosyal ve çevresel zorluklarla başa çıkmalarına yardımcı olabilecek güçlü bir planlama yaklaşımıdır. Futures Thinking in Asia and the Pacific adlı yeni kitaplarında: Öngörü Politika Yapıcılar İçin Neden Önemlidir?, yazarlar teknolojik evrim sürecini incelemenin ve anlamanın önemini, ayrıca modern bilgiyi geliştirmenin teknolojik sürecini insan hayatta kalmasının temeli olarak algılamak ve savaşan devletleri birleştirmek için kişisel bir paradigma geliştirmenin gerekliliğini ve olasılığını araştırıyorlar. Kitap, gelecek terminolojisi kavramını ve problem analizi, senaryo planlama ve geriye dönük muhasebe gibi özel araçları tanıtarak başlar. Bu araçlar daha sonra Ermenistan, Kamboçya, Kazakistan, Moğolistan, Çin Halk Cumhuriyeti ve Timor-ste'de uygulanmakta ve bölgedeki dönüşümsel değişim için potansiyel giriş noktalarını belirlemek için nasıl kullanılabileceğini göstermektedir. Yazarlar, modern bilginin gelişiminin teknolojik sürecinin algılanması için kişisel bir paradigma geliştirmenin önemini vurgulamaktadır, çünkü bu, insanın hayatta kalması ve savaşan devletlerin birleşmesi için temel oluşturacaktır. Kitabın en önemli çıkarımlarından biri, teknolojinin evrimini inceleme ve anlama ihtiyacıdır.
التفكير المستقبلي في آسيا والمحيط الهادئ: لماذا البصيرة مهمة لمطوري السياسات بينما نتنقل في عالم القرن الحادي والعشرين المعقد والمتغير بسرعة، أصبح من الواضح بشكل متزايد أن القدرة على توقع المستقبل والاستعداد له أمر بالغ الأهمية لصانعي السياسات في منطقة آسيا والمحيط الهادئ. هذا هو المكان الذي يلعب فيه التفكير المستقبلي وبعد النظر - وهو نهج قوي للتخطيط يمكن أن يساعد البلدان على التعامل مع التحديات الاقتصادية والسياسية والاجتماعية والبيئية، بما في ذلك تلك الناجمة عن تغير المناخ. في كتابهم الجديد Futures Thinking in Asia and the Pacific: لماذا البصيرة مهمة لصانعي السياسات، يستكشف المؤلفون أهمية دراسة وفهم عملية التطور التكنولوجي، فضلاً عن الحاجة وإمكانية تطوير نموذج شخصي لإدراك العملية التكنولوجية لتطوير المعرفة الحديثة كأساس لبقاء الإنسان وتوحيد الدول المتحاربة. يبدأ الكتاب بتقديم مفهوم مصطلحات العقود الآجلة وأدوات محددة مثل تحليل المشاكل وتخطيط السيناريوهات والمحاسبة بأثر رجعي. ثم يتم تطبيق هذه الأدوات في أرمينيا وكمبوديا وكازاخستان ومنغوليا وجمهورية الصين الشعبية وتيمور - ليشتي، مما يدل على كيفية استخدامها لتحديد نقاط الدخول المحتملة للتغيير التحويلي في المنطقة. يؤكد المؤلفون على أهمية تطوير نموذج شخصي لتصور العملية التكنولوجية لتطوير المعرفة الحديثة، لأن هذا سيوفر الأساس لبقاء الإنسان وتوحيد الدول المتحاربة. إحدى النقاط الرئيسية من الكتاب هي الحاجة إلى دراسة وفهم تطور التكنولوجيا.

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